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MERNAGH: TONIGHT’S NCAA SWEET 16 LINEUP

Tonight’s games offer up four potentially excellent match-ups (the thing that everyone says this tournament, and really any basketball game played anywhere, is always about).

Here’s some thoughts on each game.

Syracuse vs Wisconsin

This one will be a battle of pace.

Syracuse wants to get out in transition, run and dunk, hit the trailer for three-point attempts and attack the basket off the bounce.

Wisconsin wants to take their time and get a great shot each possession. If they can’t get a great shot, they want Jordan Taylor to create late in the shot clock on the perimeter by either raising up for a 3, getting to the rim and getting fouled or finding open three-point shooters with kick outs. Or the want Ryan Evans to do the same in the mid-to-low block. Wisconsin wants the game in the 50′s or 60′s, Syracuse in the 80′s. Look for a heavy dose of short corner and free throw line finds in the half court action of the Badgers against the Orange 2-3 zone. Roc Christmas was outstanding against Kansas State in the place of Fab Melo. Another big aspect in this game will be how physical the refs allow things to get. I’m hard-pressed to call anyone a clear favorite here but I think Syracuse’s depth will win it for them.

Ohio State vs Cincinnati

These teams, somewhat surprisingly, have only faced off 9 times in their storied histories. I would’ve thought that they played each other more than that, especially back in the day (the Buckeyes hold a 5-4 edge in the series). Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin has done a fantastic job with his team, playing mostly a 4 guard lineup along with either Yancy Gates or Justin Jackson. The Bearcats are tougher than most teams, especially teams that play their style. Ohio State has the edge in talent. Gates vs Sully could be a really fun match up, but the thought here is that Cincinnati needs huge scoring games from Gates, Kilpatrick and Dixon, while Cashmere Wright has to play basically error-free with Aaron Craft in his grill all night. DeShaun Thomas has been unbelievable thus far in the tournament (49 points and 19 rebounds), while Jared Sullinger seemed to pop out of a mini-funk late in the Buckeyes last game. I like the Buckeyes in the 8-12 point range (unless everyone on the Cincy side goes bananas and the Buckeye bigs all foul out trying to deal with Gates in the post). OSU wins this one.

Michigan State vs Louisville

Dream coaching match up with Hova (Izzo) matching wits with the last Don (Pitino). I do not like this match up for Louisville. Too much Day Day Green and Michigan State is locked in right now. Louisville will have to turn the Spartans over a ton and get easy buckets to have a chance here. Pitino will no doubt have a great game-plan, I just don’t think he has the horses to pull it off. Peyton Siva and Keith Appling will both play 100 mph. It will be entertaining, but State is just too physical. Look for Louisville to try and exploit whoever Austin Calhoun is matched up with. The call here is that Sparty marches on.

Marquette vs Florida

The Gator guards get a ton of publicity, and they’re plenty good, but Marquette’s guards can go too. Jae Crowder seems to be on a mission, while DJO is as good as any guard in the country and plays with a boulder on his shoulder. Florida should attack Crowder early and try to get him into foul trouble but the Gators love to jack 3′s. Brad Beal is a special player and a huge rebounder for a guard (6.7). Florida needs to use Patric Young early and see if he can do some work inside. Prather is an xfactor for the Gators. Still, I like Marquette because of the mix they bring in star power (Crowder and DJO) plus toughness and depth. Not a big believer in Florida’s defense being able to stop the Warriors. Marquette rolls on.

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