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BIG EAST TEAMS JOCKEYING FOR NCAA TOURNAMENT SEEDING & BIDS DOWN THE STRETCH

Many key games will highlight the last eight days of the Big East regular season with NCAA implications

Earlier today we took a look at how the 2010 Big East Tournament Seeding is shaping out and how the last three games for each team in the regular season can still determine quite a bit of the match-ups for Madison Square Garden beginning March 9th.

Now, we take a look at the bigger picture and how the last week will impact the Big East and the NCAA Tournament. At this point, everyone is pretty much agreed that five teams are locks from the Big East to earn NCAA bids: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh.

Over the course of the next eight days, beginning tomorrow, six other Big East teams will have the opportunity to play themselves into (or out of) the NCAA Tournament or onto (or off of) the infamous tournanent bubble. An argument could be made that a seventh team could make a case for themselves if they run the table this last week as well. Below we will go over some of the key scenarios yet to play out in the final days of the Big East regular season before all 16 teams hit NYC for one last shot and the 2010 Big East Tournament.

One of the overriding key components you hear bantied about this time of year by commentators, bracketologists, bloggers and fans of a team’s NCAA Tournament chances is their RPI. Here are the current Big East teams that are within the top 100 in RPI rankings as of this morning and some key secondary numbers that will be highlighted on Selection Sunday:

4) Syracuse: #12 Strength of Schedule, 7-2 vs RPI top 50, 14-2 vs RPI top 100
5) West Virginia: #3 SOS, 4-5 vs top 50, 13-6 vs top 100
8] Villanova: #35 SOS, 5-4 vs top 50, 12-4 vs top 100
9) Georgetown: #1 SOS, 7-4 vs top 50, 11-6 vs top 100
11) Pittsburgh: #5 SOS, 6-3 vs top 50, 13-6 vs top 100
40) Connecticut: #2 SOS, 3-6 vs top 50, 9-9 vs top 100
40) Louisville: #7 SOS, 2-6 vs top 50, 6-9 vs top 100
53) Seton Hall: #20 SOS, 3-9 vs top 50, 6-10 vs top 100
55) Marquette: #55 SOS, 3-7 vs top 50, 6-7 vs top 100
67) South Florida: #38 SOS, 3-4 vs top 50, 5-10 vs top 100
70) Cincinnati: #32 SOS, 4-6 vs top 50, 6-11 vs top 100
73) Notre Dame: #57 SOS, 2-4 vs top 50, 7-8 vs top 100
75) St. John’s: #24 SOS, 3-8 vs top 50, 7-10 vs top 100

Doing a quick scan of past tournament history, if your RPI is in the top 40 and you are from a BCS conference, you can feel pretty safe on Selection Sunday. If your RPI is above that, you will be sweating it out during CBS’ Selection Show. Last year, Arizona received an at-large bid with an RPI of 54, while in 2008 Villanova (52) and Oregon (56) slid in, but at the expense of Ohio State (46). In 2006, Texas Tech and Stanford made the cut with RPI’s over 50, but we probably do not have to remind most Big East followers that was the year Syracuse was left out, despite an RPI of 32. Clemson was also denied with an RPI of 40 that season. Iowa State got in with a 57 RPI in 2005, but in 2004, LSU was on the outside looking in despite a top 40 RPI. In 2003, NC State was granted a bid with an RPI of 53. So, as you can see, after the five Big East locks, most are treading on dangerous territory with some tough games ahead.

Of the locks, Syracuse looks to be in very good position to secure a #1 NCAA Tournament seed. The Orange can virtually assure themselves of such a position with a win over ‘Nova Saturday night in the Carrier Dome before an all-time NCAA Tournament record crowd, which will lock them into the conferences #1 seed in the upcoming Big East Tournament. Since the East Regional semifinals and finals are scheduled for the Carrier Dome, SU will not be able to be in put in the East bracket. But, one can assume the Orange will start the Big Dance about two and half hours west on I-90 (NYS Thruway) in Buffalo. Western New York is certainly Orange country, so if your planning to check out the games, the following link might be your best bet to secure tickets:

NCAA Tournament Tickets – Buffalo

West Virginia and Villanova are in position for top two seeds in the tournament. The Wildcats have seen their RPI dip a bit recently with a few losses, but if they could finish strong they could solidify their spot as a #2. The Mountaineers have a strong RPI, but a losing record against teams in the RPI top 50 will likely prevent them from sneaking into a #1 seed, but should give them a strong case for a #2, preventing they do not flounder in the final two weeks leading to Selection Sunday.

Georgetown and Pittsburgh look to pretty much have top four seeds lined up with both likely earning 3’s without any late season hiccups.

We expect at least one Big East team to land in another Big East city to open their tournament runs. The Dunkin’ Donuts Center in Providence will host opening round games. Here is a link for tickets:

NCAA Tournament Tickets – Providence

The bubble is where things get quite interesting. Sunday afternoon has Connecticut hosting Louisville. The Cards might be 9-6 in the Big East, but Rick Pitino understands that a tough stretch in their non-conference schedule has left them likely needed an 11-7 Big East mark to make the dance. With road games against UConn and Marquette and a season-finale contest with Syracuse to close their schedule, 11-7 would be a nice finish. A bad home loss to Western Carolina and their best non-conference win coming against Morgan State, the Cards left themselves with little room for error.

UConn is on a late-season roll and they have a non-conference win over Texas in their back pocket while William & Mary, Iona and Harvard also register as top 100 non-conference wins. After UL, the Huskies finish at Notre Dame and at South Florida, two more bubble contenders (or pretenders) that knocking off would give Jim Calhoun’s club additional breathing room.

Seton Hall also left themselves little room for error with a non-descript out of conference effort this season. They do have a road win over Cornell from November which represented their lone OOC win against a team with an RPI of 158 or better. The Pirates host Marquette on Saturday in a key game for both teams in their tourney hopes. Bobby Gonzalez’s crew closes on the road against PC and RU, one upset loss in these last three and their chances of making the Dance will be nearly dead.

Marquette is 9-6 in the Big East, but their RPI in the mid-50’s leaves them in a precarious position. They have a great early season neutral floor win over Xavier, which looks better and better as the season goes along. They had excruciating losses to Florida State (neutral floor) and North Carolina State (home) that they would love to have back as wins right now. They also had Michigan (W) and Wisconsin (L) on their out of conference schedule, but balanced those games out with six games against teams with RPI’s of 224+. Finishing with SHU (road) and home with UL and ND has them head-to-head with other bubble hopefuls to the end. 11 Big East wins and 20 overall should get them in, even if the RPI is in shaky territory.

With an RPI of 67 we can pretty much consider South Florida down for the count as they have now lost four of their last five game. Still, winning their last three games (vs PC, at DePaul, vs UConn) would put them at 9-9 in the Big East and 19-11 overall heading to NYC. The could re-enter the discussion if they can win out.

For Cincinnati to be in this position, #70 RPI and a 16-11 overall record, heading into the last week of the regular season has to be one of the bigger disappointments in the Big East and the country. Afterall, much was expected from the Bearcats and they started out the season earning a top 25 ranking with neutral floor wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland back in November. However, since then, their only wins against top 65 RPI teams have come in their two wins over UConn. A finishing stretch of at West Virginia, vs Villanov and at Georgetown could either add the final nails to their coffin or suddenly re-energize their chances.

The final Big East team with any NCAA Tournament bubble hope is Notre Dame. The Irish are a longshot to enter the mix, likely having to sweep their final three games, which includes a visit to Georgetown, home date with UConn and a trip to Marquette. A tough closing stretch, but with, or without Luke Harangody, three wins, as improbable as they might be, would pose an interesting discussion on Selection Sunday for the selection committee regarding the Irish.

Here are more links to chances to purchase NCAA Tournament tickets for 1st and 2nd round sites as well as the regionals:

1st & 2nd Round Sites (in addition to Providence and Buffalo found above):

NCAA Tournament Tickets – Milwaukee

NCAA Tournament Tickets – Jacksonville

NCAA Tournament Tickets – New Orleans

NCAA Tournament Tickets – Oklahoma City

NCAA Tournament Tickets – San Jose

NCAA Tournament Tickets – Spokane

Regional Semifinals and Finals:

NCAA Tournament – East Regional Tickets (Syracuse)

NCAA Tournament – South Regional Tickets (Houston)

NCAA Tournament – Midwest Regional Tickets (St. Louis)

NCAA Tournament – West Regional Tickets (Salt Lake City)

REMAINING BIG EAST REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE:

Saturday, February 27:
Notre Dame (7-8) at Georgetown (9-6), 12 Noon.
Pittsburgh (10-5) at St. John’s (5-10), 12 Noon.
Cincinnati (7-8) at West Virginia (10-5), 2 PM.
DePaul (1-14) at Rutgers (4-11), 4 PM.
Providence (4-11) at South Florida (6-9), 7 PM.
Villanova (12-3) at Syracuse (13-2), 9 PM.

Sunday, February 28:
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 Noon.
Louisville at Connecticut, 2 PM.

Monday, March 1:
Georgetown at West Virginia, 7 PM.

Tuesday, March 2:
Villanova at Cincinnati, 7 PM
St. John’s at Syracuse, 7 PM
South Florida at DePaul, 7:30
Louisville at Marquette, 9:30

Wednesday, March 3:
Connecticut at Notre Dame, 7 PM.

Thursday, March 4:

Seton Hall at Rutgers, 7 PM
Providence at Pittsburgh, 9 PM

Friday, March 5:

St. John’s at DePaul, 8:30 PM.

Saturday, March 6:

Cincinnati at Georgetown, 12 Noon.
West Virginia at Villanova, 12 Noon.
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 PM.
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 PM.
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 PM.
Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 4:30.
Seton Hall at Providence, 7 PM.

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