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MERNAGH’S BELLY OF THE BE-AST (2/9/2010)

by RAY MERNAGH

Snow has kept me captive the last few days as my neighbors and I replay the most overrated film on Bill Murray’s resume — IMHO — Groundhog Day.

All the debris is cleared from the backyard and both parking places are secured out front after hours of digging out. The inability of this city to deal with a couple feet of snow has been shocking — we actually have the National Guard rolling the streets of Pittsburgh helping folks out of houses on blocks that have yet to see a plow. I understand the city is hilly and the amount of snow was more than double what was expected but man. So I apologize for the lack of production out of this half of the NBE Ownership since this, but I’m fitting to make up for it with this edition of the Belly of the Beast.

How Good Is the Big East?

Not sure exactly except to definitively state that it’s, once again, a lot better than any other of the Big Six Conferences. They all have a team or two with the talent and coaching giving them a chance of making Final Four runs… but none of them have three or four. Right now Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown and West Virginia look capable of getting to Indianapolis. Syracuse and ‘Nova have separated themselves in my opinion. Georgetown has depth issues and WVU has guard issues (although they can go big and adjust depending on match ups in a tournament situation, plus adding an offensively skilled big like Deniz Kilicili is a nice bonus for Huggs). Georgetown beating Nova wasn’t a shock because one, Georgetown, when hitting shots, is really freaking good and two, Nova was due for a loss. One thing that could hinder Nova at tournament time is officiating. The Wildcats get into you and they also, there’s really no other way to put this, hack a lot, especially on the perimeter. Referees can’t call every foul so teams like Nova and Louisville, benefit because they’re so aggressive defensively (although Jay Wright and Rick Pitino would probably choke if they read that while eating). But Nova is/should be good enough and smart enough to adapt to a different-style whistle should they encounter it in March. But to me it’s the teams on the second tier that make the Big East untouchable when talking about the strongest leagues.

Pittsburgh is in as of right now while Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida, Cincinnati are all fighting for NCAA bids down the stretch. Marquette plays harder than any team in the league night in-night out — ‘Nova might match them — and just so happens to lead the country in three-point shooting. They have a potentially March-type difference-making monster in Darius Johnson-Odom (and Lazar Hayward is pretty damn good too). Pitt‘s Jamie Dixon has turned a rebuilding year into what looks to be another NCAA Tournament berth. How many fans of other Big East schools would eat glass if it guaranteed their squads would be coached by Buzz Williams or Jamie Dixon next year? Stan Heath has managed to bring enough talent to Tampa that he’s surrounded ‘Nique Jones with a group that looks tournament worthy.

The third tier?

Glad you asked.

Anyone want to venture a guess where Connecticut, Seton Hall or Providence would be in some other “BCS league” standings? UConn is the 11th team from the Big East that still, barely, harbors some hope for a bid.

All this of course leads us to the question — how many teams will the Big East send to the NCAA’s? Have no idea but lets look at what some of the teams still fighting will face the rest of the way.

UConn (RPI 57): If Pitt and Marquette are the biggest surprises there can not be any doubt that UConn is the biggest disappointment. Some might scoff that I’m even considering them as still “fighting” for a bid because so far they’ve sprinted the other way when faced with any semblance of a fight this season. Right now they’re 14-9 and 4-6. They’ve struggled, still how would 17-9 and 7-6 look this time next week if those three wins came at Syracuse, against Cincinnati at home and at Nova? The Huskies would all of a sudden be looking decent no? Especially with a finishing schedule that looks like this: @Rutgers, WVU and Louisville at home, then @Notre Dame and @ USF to finish it up. That’s almost a perfect mix of winnable games against teams that are also fighting for bids.

First though, they need to win tomorrow night in the Carrier Dome.

Cincinnati (RPI 56): I thought last season that Cincinnati would make a run at this exact time and they promptly went in the tank. This season they have more talent and coach Mick Cronin says they’ll “be fine” if they play the way they did in their loss other day at home to Syracuse. I respectfully disagree. I don’t think Cincinnati has any kind of style/identity/philosophy offensively other than jacking 3′s as the shot clock winds down. They’ve been beaten handily the last two games by Notre Dame and Syracuse. Notre Dame held them to 65 points while Syracuse locked them down in the final 12 minutes in holding them to 54. Down the stretch the Bearcats have the following: @UConn, @USF, Marquette, DePaul, @WVU, Villanova and @Georgetown. At 14-9 and 5-6 it’s looking like another late-season swoon to me.

South Florida (RPI 51) and Marquette (RPI 59): The Bulls are 15-8 and 5-6 with a HUGE GAME on Saturday at Marquette. The loss to Notre Dame hurt but the Bulls schedule is decent after Saturday’s game in Milwaukee. After Marquette the Bulls have Cincinnati and St. John’s at home,@ Nova, Providence, @DePaul and UConn at home. The game Saturday is monumental for each team. Marquette is 15-8 and 6-5. Down the stretch following Saturday they have Pitt in Milwaukee before going on the road for three straight @Cincy @St. John’s and @Seton Hall. They then come back home for Louisville and Notre Dame.

Louisville (RPI 42): The Cards are 15-8 and 6-4. Down the stretch — @St. John’s, @Syracuse, Notre Dame, @DePaul, Georgetown, @UConn, @Marquette and Cuse at home….potentially painful stretch there. That’s six questionable games according to my count. Cards could go either way at this point. Pitino has put Jennings into the starting lineup and is bringing Swopshire off the bench.

My biggest question: If the Big East deserves ten bids will they get them? In my opinion, probably not. I bet it’s either eight or nine bids again. We’ll return to the topic when it’s time though.

Pitt’s Taylor Needs Time

There was recently a piece done by Kevin Gorman here in Pittsburgh questioning Dante Taylor’s role on the Pittsburgh team. Taylor’s high school coach was quoted throughout the piece saying, basically, that Jamie Dixon wasn’t using Taylor correctly. That’s as much detail as I’ll get into. Gorman wrote a thought-provoking piece and his main point was that Taylor can’t develop on the bench — and that appears to be a half-truth at best.

Because the whole truth is, at this point at least, Taylor can’t develop on the floor either. Taylor will be a good player eventually. If Taylor wants it bad enough — and all indications are that the kid has worked very hard since getting on campus — he could be a great player by the time he’s done playing at Pitt (he has gifts). What Taylor needs is a whole off season of work in the weight room and individual instruction. He’s not strong enough in either his upper body or lower body for Big East basketball yet. He will be. He also isn’t a complete enough player with his back to the basket or facing up. Taylor’s main skill right now is that he can run the court.

His high school coach would be smart to tell his former player that and he also might want to mention that Sam Young, a guy he alludes to in Gorman’s piece, kept an air matress in the locker room when he was at Pitt. Young wanted to be IN THE GYM LITERALLY whenever he woke up.

Give him a whole off-season of hard work and he will be leaps and bounds better than he is right now.

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