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BIG EAST DANCE CARD (3/9/2009)

by Jeff Borzello

With the regular season completely finished in the Big East, the NCAA Tournament picture is becoming much clearer – and might be figured out in terms of at-large bids. However, the 2009 Big East Tournament will solve all of the unanswered questions. Starting on Tuesday, the conference tournament is going to be one of the best in the country. All 16 teams are involved, with the top four seeds getting byes to the quarterfinals and teams seeded five through eight receiving passes to the second round. With seven teams locked up from this conference, the bubble teams are all going to have to make big runs in New York City.

Pittsburgh: With the Panthers’ convincing win over Connecticut on Saturday, they completed the season sweep of the Huskies and might have locked up the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. They remained No. 1 in the RPI and non-conference RPI, and they have an unbelievable seven wins against the top-25 of the RPI. They have a No. 1 seed sewn up and should be the overall No. 1 seed when the brackets are revealed. Projected Seed: 1

Connecticut: Despite the Huskies’ second loss to Pittsburgh, they are still in good shape for a No.1 seed in six days. They have a top-five RPI and a 16-3 record against the top-100 of the RPI. Throw in just one loss on the road, and the Huskies are solid. However, the loss dropped them to the No. 3 seed in the Big East Tournament, which means they will likely face Syracuse instead of Providence or Cincinnati. A loss there and the Huskies’ top seed will be precarious. Projected Seed: 1

Louisville: Keep an eye on the Cardinals for a potential No. 1 seed. They won the Big East regular-season title outright, and will be hard to ignore if they win the conference tournament in New York. They are 8-2 against the top-50 of the RPI, and have won seven in a row to end the season. Plus, they own a win over Pittsburgh and have lost just twice in the last 19 games. They are likely a two seed, but don’t count them out as a top seed. Projected Seed: 2

Villanova: The Wildcats bounced back from their struggles last week with a dominant win on the road over Notre Dame on Monday. They then basically ended Providence’s at-large hopes with a 17-point victory at home over the Friars on Thursday. They earned the No. 4 seed in the Big East Tournament, meaning they don’t have to play against until the semifinals. Furthermore, they will likely face a struggling Marquette squad. This team is solid for a three seed. >Projected Seed: 3

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are in a ton of trouble. Obviously they are a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but their seed continues to drop. They have now lost four in a row after falling at Pittsburgh and then losing at home to a Syracuse team that had won one road game since early January. Unless they have a good showing in the Big East Tournament, Marquette could get a much lower seed than expected. The loss of Dominic James has been a crushing blow. Projected Seed: 6

Syracuse: The Orange enter the Big East Tournament on a hot streak, having won four in a row to end the season after losing seven of their previous 10 games. They also might have rid themselves of their road woes with an impressive overtime victory at Marquette. They are 6-6 against the top-50 of the RPI and have very good computer numbers. If they win their quarterfinal match-up in New York, they will have a showdown with Connecticut. Projected Seed: 6

West Virginia: The Mountaineers could have boosted their seed a few spots with a win over surging Louisville, but they couldn’t get it done late and fell to the Cardinals at home. Still, due to their very solid computer numbers, they are very likely to wear a home jersey in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, their 1-6 record vs. the top-25 and 3-7 vs. the top-50 is a cause for concern. A win over Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals would be huge. Projected Seed: 7

Providence: The Friars’ bubble might have popped with their 17-point loss at Villanova on Thursday to end the season. They are just 2-8 vs. the top-50 and have an RPI in the 70s. PC has lost three of five and six of their last 10. They need to do plenty of work in the Big East Tournament, as the Pittsburgh win will only go so far. Projected Seed: None

Cincinnati: The Bearcats are also on the wrong side of the bubble after their home loss to Seton Hall, which was Cincinnati’s third consecutive defeat and fifth in its last six games. They dropped to 17-13 overall and 8-10 in the Big East – not good enough for an at-large bid. A run to the conference title game would get them back in the conversation. Projected Seed: None

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are also pretty much done after their blowout home loss to Villanova on Monday, despite their bounce back win over St. John’s on Friday. Their RPI is in the 70s, they have an awful non-conference schedule and they are 3-11 vs. the top-50 of the RPI. They are 5-10 in their last 15 games and likely need the automatic bid. Projected Seed: None

Georgetown: The Hoyas have no shot at an at-large bid, barring a run to the title game and a great performance in the championship. That would be four wins in four days and then an impressive loss – the Hoyas have won four games since mid-January, they aren’t winning four games in four days. Their loss at St. John’s was extremely costly. Projected Seed: None

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