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BIG EAST DANCE CARD (2/16/2009)

by Jeff Borzello

As most teams in the Big East enter their final six games – and some have just five left – it is now or never time for several clubs in the conference. There are only five teams that are definitely in the NCAA Tournament and probably only five teams have no shot at the Big Dance. That leaves six in the middle that still have work to do – or not to do, depending on where they wish to end up on Selection Sunday.

The past week in the Big East featured plenty of storylines and interesting results that will affect the conference pecking order, and there are a couple of marquee battles in the upcoming week that will undoubtedly affect the postseason chances of multiple teams. With just three weeks left until the Big East Tournament, it is the perfect time to take another look at how the NCAA Tournament is shaping up for the conference in this week’s Dance Card.

Connecticut: The Huskies hang onto the top overall seed in the field, due to their No. 3 RPI, 13-game winning streak and 16 top-100 wins. However, with Jerome Dyson likely out for the season, UConn will obviously have to continue winning if its wants to keep a No. 1 seed. It only has five games left in the regular season, including two against Pittsburgh and one at Marquette. We will get to see what the Dyson-less Huskies are really made of Monday night against the Panthers.
Projected Seed: 1

Pittsburgh: After a brief hiatus, the Panthers get back to the top-seed line due to their five-game winning streak and the struggles of the top ACC teams not named North Carolina. Pitt has the No. 1 RPI in the country and four wins against the top-25 of the RPI. They also have a chance to potentially leapfrog Connecticut as they have two games against the Huskies down the stretch, starting Monday. If Pitt gets the top seed in Indianapolis, they will likely face the play-in game winner. Projected Seed: 1

Louisville: The Cardinals were dominated by Notre Dame on the road during the week, but bounced back with a convincing victory over DePaul Sunday. With struggles by other teams around the country, Louisville is still in the mix for a two seed. They are 4-1 against the top-25 and own a win over Pittsburgh. The Cardinals face Providence at home on Wednesday, and then head on the road for a date with Cincinnati. They need to finish strong if they want a top-2 seed.
Projected Seed: 2

Villanova: The Wildcats might have passed Marquette in the conference pecking order, despite their inferior conference record. They blew out the Golden Eagles during the week, and a loss at a good West Virginia team isn’t anything to hang your head about. They have a better RPI, 11 wins vs. the top-100 of the RPI and a much better SOS. Plus, they have a win over Pittsburgh. They face Rutgers on Thursday before heading to upset New York to face Syracuse. Projected Seed: 3

Marquette: Now that we gave you the case for Villanova being ahead of Marquette, let’s share Marquette’s side of the story. The Golden Eagles are 10-2 in the Big East, two games ahead of the Wildcats. They still have a decent RPI, and are 9-3 against the top-100. Furthermore, they defeated Villanova earlier in the season. However, what separates ‘Nova from Marquette is that the Golden Eagles lost to South Florida and played a much less difficult schedule. That schedule will get much harder in their last five games. Projected Seed: 3

Syracuse: The Orange temporarily stopped the bleeding on Saturday, as they staved off a late Georgetown rally in regulation to beat the Hoyas in overtime. The win got Syracuse back above .500 in the Big East, but it was also just their third win in their last nine games. Non-conference wins over Memphis, Kansas and Florida look good on the resume, but they don’t have a victory over any of the top five teams in the Big East. They get a chance against Villanova on Sunday. Projected Seed: 6

West Virginia: Had the Mountaineers lost to Villanova on Friday night, they might not have been in the projected field right now. However, that certainly didn’t happen, as West Virginia beat a hot Wildcats team by 21. They are back to 6-6 in the conference and still have league games against Rutgers, South Florida and DePaul. They have a very good RPI and a terrific SOS, but their 1-6 record against the top-25 is an eyesore. WVU needs to beat Notre Dame at home on Thursday.
Projected Seed: 9

Cincinnati: The Bearcats made it into the projected field last week, but they might be on the outside looking in as of now. They defeated St. John’s by 10 during the week, but lost by 16 at Pittsburgh on Saturday. Losing at Pitt is nothing to be ashamed of, but the margin does not give them momentum heading into a tough three-game stretch that includes home games against Louisville and West Virginia, followed by a trip to Syracuse. Winning one or two of those is a necessity.
Projected Seed: None

Georgetown: The Hoyas fell out of most projected fields last week, and they did nothing this week to prove they belonged back in, as they had just one game and lost it. They did play well, but it was not enough, as Syracuse beat Georgetown in overtime. The Hoyas have now lost seven of their last eight to fall to an unfathomable 4-8 in conference play. They do face South Florida on Wednesday, but games against Marquette, Louisville and Villanova follow the Bulls.
Projected Seed: None

Providence: The Friars are the exact opposite of Georgetown. They have a gaudy conference record, but poor computer numbers and nothing of substance to convince the Selection Committee that they belong. They beat South Florida and Rutgers this past week to move to 8-5 in the Big East, but they are still just 5-9 vs. the RPI top-100. That could change down the stretch, though, as they head to both Louisville and Villanova as well as host Villanova. It starts Wednesday against the Cardinals. Projected Seed: None

Notre Dame: Look who is back from the dead. The Fighting Irish, who were completely left for naught last week, have fought their way back into the discussion with back-to-back wins, including a throttling of Louisville at home on Thursday. They avoided a letdown this weekend, beating South Florida. Can Notre Dame keep it up? It has two road games this week, against West Virginia and Providence. At 5-7 in the Big East, the Irish can’t afford many more slip-ups. Projected Seed: None

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