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BIG EAST DANCE CARD (1/30/2009)

by Jeff Borzello

Well, if you didn’t think the Big East could get anymore confusing and muddled, this week just made it much tougher to figure out. As we enter February and the stretch run towards Selection Sunday, the conference has three national title contenders in Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Louisville; one of the hottest teams in the country in Marquette; and a major drop-off to the rest of the conference. Just a few short weeks ago, many thought there was little difference between the top seven teams in the league. Now, there is a clear-cut gap between the top teams and the middle-of-the-pack clubs. How does that affect the NCAA Tournament picture for the conference? Let’s take a look. Starting next week, I will project the seed for each team.

Connecticut: With Duke’s loss Wednesday at Wake Forest, does this position the Huskies to be the overall No. 1 seed come Monday if they beat Providence at home? The RPI went down slightly due to playing DePaul, but Connecticut keeps winning and the fellow top-seed candidates keep falling. The Huskies are 9-1 against the top-100 and have won eight in a row since their loss to Georgetown. They have a showdown Monday at Louisville.

Louisville: The Cardinals might move slightly ahead of Pittsburgh after the Panthers’ loss to Villanova Wednesday night. They have won eight in a row after destroying South Florida this week, and their computer numbers continue to rise. More importantly, they are still undefeated in Big East play. Two big home games are coming up for the Cardinals, against West Virginia and Connecticut. If they win both, they might be a No. 1 seed before you know it.

Pittsburgh: The Panthers got nothing from DeJuan Blair and couldn’t hit three-pointers when it counted against Villanova, falling to the Wildcats and maybe falling to a No. 2 seed. They still have five top-25 wins, but just two wins in the top-100 outside of those top-25 victories. The RPI is still No. 2, but computer numbers aren’t everything. Interestingly, Pitt is now tied for fourth in the Big East with Providence. They face struggling Notre Dame Saturday.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the country and continue to rise in the polls and in the bracket. They have won 10 in a row and are undefeated in Big East play, tied at the top of the standings with Louisville. Marquette is 8-2 against the top-100 and its computer numbers are getting better. The Golden Eagles could easily get to 10-0 in conference play, with a home game against Georgetown preceding games at DePaul and South Florida.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers are the main beneficiaries of the recent struggles by Syracuse and Georgetown, possibly passing those two in the conference pecking order. Their demolition of St. John’s pushed them over .500 in Big East play, and also kept their RPI and SOS in the top-20. A 6-5 record against the top-100 isn’t overly impressive but back-to-back road games against Louisville and Syracuse give them a chance to prove themselves.

Syracuse: With Andy Rautins and Mookie Jones out and Arinze Onuaku hampered by injury, the Orange gave up 100 points to Providence and fell to the Friars by six on Wednesday. The loss was Syracuse’s third in a row and fourth in its last five games, dropping their conference record to 5-4. They are now just 5-5 against the top-100. Rautins and Onuaku should be back soon, luckily for Syracuse, who faces West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown and Villanova twice in the next five games.

Georgetown: The Hoyas could be in major trouble after dropping their fourth game in a row and sixth in their last eight, a seven-point defeat at Cincinnati. Furthermore, leading scorer DaJuan Summers injured his ankle and will miss at least Saturday’s game at Marquette. The Hoyas are now just 3-5 in Big East play and 12-7 overall, and their computer numbers are falling. After their game at Marquette this weekend, winnable home games against Rutgers and Cincinnati follow.

Villanova: Finally, a marquee win for the Wildcats. ‘Nova knocked off Pittsburgh at home on Wednesday, overcoming a poor performance by Scottie Reynolds to get the victory. The Wildcats’ RPI catapulted into the top-15 after the win and the SOS rose into the top-25 as well. It was their first top-25 win and only their second top-50 win. Georgetown and Syracuse still have better wins, which is why ‘Nova is still behind them. They face Cincinnati at home Saturday.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are falling faster and further than Georgetown, which is saying something. They lost their fourth in a row Monday to Marquette, which was also their second straight home loss. The Irish are now just 3-5 in the Big East, and they can’t fall back on their computer numbers, which are horrible: No. 78 RPI, No. 65 SOS. It doesn’t get easier, either. Notre Dame now goes on the road to face Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and UCLA, then plays Louisville at home. Uh-oh.

Providence: The Friars are still hanging around the Dance Card, and could be here to stay. They defeated Syracuse on Wednesday, dropping 100 points on the Orange. The win pushed Providence to 6-2 in the Big East and 14-7 overall. The RPI (61) and SOS (54) are not impressive, but it’s better than Notre Dame. The win over ‘Cuse was their first top-50 win, which means they need more big wins. A road game at Connecticut Saturday gives them another chance.

Cincinnati: Two weeks ago, the Bearcats were 0-3 in Big East play and had lost four in a row overall. However, after Wednesday’s win over Georgetown, they are now 4-4 in the conference and have some NCAA Tournament hope again. Their RPI is still in the 50s, but they have a very good SOS and wins over UNLV, UAB, Mississippi State and now Georgetown. The Bearcats have a road game at Villanova Sunday, followed by a home contest against struggling Notre Dame.

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