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BELLY OF THE BE-AST (16-Shot Edition)

by Ray Mernagh

Bob Hurley, the greatest basketball coach in the world, has a “free-shot” philosophy when it comes to steals made by his Friars. The second a steal is made, Hurley’s bench is up screaming “free shot” to the players on the court. The message to the thief when he hears the chorus is that he should push the ball up the court (unless it’s the center) and create an offensive opportunity going to the basket. The message to the other four players is to bust it down the court for a likely second-shot-off-the-offensive-glass opportunity. Hurley describes it as an extra, or free, possession, therefore the player making the steal has the freedom to create the best scoring situation he can knowing full-well that a) he’s undoubtedly in a transition situation where the defense is either on their heels or flat-out retreating and b) the cavalry’s bringing up the rear.

So with the preseason prognosticating officially underway, I thought I’d pay tribute to Coach Hurley by stealing the preseason picks of the Big East Bosses (head coaches poll released at media day) and — having a pretty tight handle still — taking sixteen “free shots” of my own. Just opinions on each squad, most of them informed, others maybe not so much (there’s a reason for the comments section people). Having already been staked, let’s get to this before NBE sends the goons to my domicile.

1. UConn — Jim Calhoun has what seems like the right mix going into this year, with vets like Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and AJ Price looking to mesh with the guy I think will be the league’s most influential rookie in Kemba Walker. These cats, okay dawgs, have been humbled the last couple of years (missing the tournament for the first time in twenty years in 06-07 and losing in the first round to San Diego last season) but seem primed to make a pattened UConn-type run at elite status nation-wide.

Two keys for the Huskies will be the play of Thabeet and the chemistry on the floor.

a. Can the big man be dominant for longer stretches at a time and not have his head taken out of games by smaller, tougher players? Thabeet should be a force this year. He has had enough experience playing against strong competition the last few seasons that his lack of total basketball years cannot be used as an excuse anymore — not at this level and not with his physical gifts.
b. Can Price and the other perimeter vets make the game easier for young Walker by accepting his talent/presence on the floor, in turn making the game easier for themselves? Or will there be attitudes and ego-clashes? Doug Wiggins is no longer around to blame. Price was the best point in the league last year before tearing his ACL in tournament play. My guess is he takes Walker under his wing and helps him thrive. Jeff Adrien is a warrior that shows up every single night with a team-first mentality. If the rest of Calhoun’s crew can follows his lead, the sky’s the limit for this bunch.

2. Louisville – Rick Pitino’s ability to get elite talent on his roster is undeniable. The Hall of Famer thinks he has six potential pros on this year’s team and “more on the way.” That sound you hear is probably ten of his Big East counterparts banging their heads against brick walls in utter frustration. Louisville has no borderline in terms of areas they’ll recruit. The roster includes players from the following states: Washington, New Jersey, New York, Indiana, Missouri and California. They also have future recruits in the pipeline from Florida and Massachusetts. Just to prove they’re well-rounded senior guard Will Scott is a freaking Rhodes Scholar applicant. That wide-ranging geographical talent net resulted in an Elite Eight appearance for the Cards last season. Two keys for this season will be the point guard play of Edgar Sosa and the post play of prized recruit Samardo Samuels. Sosa struggled last year with his decision making as a sophomore in what was a step back for him from his promising first year on campus. He needs to play smarter to stay on the floor for Pitino. Samuels will be expected to produce inside from day one, not always an easy task for a freshman. Earl Clark, Jerry Smith and Terrence Williams form an exceptional trio. Clark and Williams stuff every possible stat category while Smith catches and hits dagger three’s. A concern at this point has to be Williams and his knee as the Cards best player will miss 4-6 weeks if everything goes well. Pitino is one of the few coaches at this level I’ve seen that almost never makes a mistake in terms of strategy. He pretty much out-coaches almost every peer he faces. When you combine that with the aforementioned talent, it almost isn’t fair.

3. Pitt – The excitement in Pittsburgh is palpable with the return of the three-headed monster. Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields give Jamie Dixon the most productive returning trio not only in the Big East, but possibly the nation. Insiders expect Fields to start the season on the bench tending to a recurring foot injury that required a second surgery in August. I would never say having a leader like Fields out is good but it will certainly give Dixon an idea of which youngster will backup Fields when the Brooklynite returns ready for action (all indications are it will be relatively early in the year). Getting first crack at the job, and probably securing it based on early reviews, will be first-year St Anthony’s product Travon Woodall. If Woodall falters look for fellow neophyte Ashton Gibbs and sophomore Brad Wanamaker to get a shot in that order. One concern, as always it seems, is the lack of a proven knockdown jump-shooter on the roster. High school reputations are irrelevant at this level as often guys come in as shooters but fail to become a consistent threat once they’re guarded by high-major athletes. Young stated at Pitt’s media day that he wants to defend in every game like he did in the Big East tournament — that would be a really good thing for Pitt. Young is an elite wing who can be among the best all around players in the country when he sets his mind to defending like he’s capable. Look for redshirt sophomore Gil Brown to do everything he can to help the team win — this kid’s an athletic nightmare for opponents who should be just scratching the surface of what he’ll be once Young graduates. Dixon has it rolling in Oakland. Blair needs to finish better around the rim and avoid the foul trouble that sometimes plagued him last year. Big Fella was Dixon’s biggest recruit to date and now five-star power forward Dante Taylor is on the way next year. Pitt fans have great optimism that this year’s Panthers could be the team that breaks through the Sweet Sixteen barrier. That optimism appears justified when you look at the big three plus Brown. BUT the production they get out of the question marks on the roster — the young kids, plus Wanamaker and JC transfer Jermaine Dixon — will ultimately be what either justifies that optimism, or proves it to be, once again, false hope.

4. Notre Dame – Talk about turning things around and squashing any beef Notre Dame fans had with him. Mike Brey, on the hot seat after a 16-14 finish in 2005-06 –a season filled with so many heartbreaking losses that the basketball gods are still repaying Chris Quinn for having survived it –somehow has had his Irish respond with subsequent seasons of 24-8 and 25-8 with Brey picking up Coach of the Year awards after each. Brey was able to pull this off by recruiting toughness in the form of current Juniors Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody. Brey feels like he has seven starters on the roster but the biggest question will be what can Luke Zellar bring to the table. Zellar’s numbers per minute weren’t bad but the problem is he only played about eleven minutes a game. He has to adequately replace the departed Rob Kurz’ output for the Irish to have any hope of matching last year’s 14 wins in BE play. Kyle McAlarney brings incredible range, confidence and game to the table. Harangody is deservedly getting Player of the Year votes already based on his incredible season last year. It will be interesting to see how he handles the extra attention, especially with the loss of security blanket Kurz. Brey has been to five NCAA’s in eight years in South Bend and that’s a record that any Irish fan should grab, given the combination of facility, league, and support that Brey’s had to deal with. Improvements are on the way facilty-wise, and the OOC schedule this year could be the kind that gets the Irish ranked real high real early. Of course it could also result in some early losses. Props to Brey for rewarding his players with the challenge. Irish players want to improve on their early departures in postseason play last season. With some help from Zellar, who Brey sees big things for this year, chances are good.

5. Villanova – Nova finished 9-9 in the BE, but this was an example of the strength of the Big East paying off (don’t try and tell Jim Boeheim about that) getting the coveted at-large bid to the NCAA’s. Once there they beat Clemson and Siena before losing to Kansas, results that really left a better taste about a season that included a five-game losing streak from 1/23 until 2/4. The Wildcats lost at Rutgers and at DePaul and finished the regular season wondering if they were on the bubble (they were). As I said before once they got into the dance, they produced and that creates positive memories about a regular season that was indeed a huge struggle for Jay Wright’s gang. The good news is they have everyone back from a team that advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. The question is how much have they improved? They only added one piece to the puzzle 6-10, 210 pound forward Maurice Sutton. Scottie Reynold is back and when he’s on his game there’s no better guard in the BE. His numbers from year one to year two were barely different. Nova fans are praying that their two sophomore guards this season, Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes, see a much bigger jump in production from their first season (and I think they will). Villanova has two warriors in both Dante Cunningham (10 and 6) and Antonio Pena (7 and 4). Each brings some bounce and toughness to the interior. Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark should provide a spark, with Anderson probably getting the starting nod based on his production after Clark got hurt last year. The interior is in shape if Sutton can provide decent minutes to back up Pena and Cunningham. If Stokes and Fisher improve in the way their pedigree suggests, then ‘Nova will be capable of finishing at this spot in the BE. Don’t be shocked if they fall a little bit lower. Wright’s 2009 class is stacked though, with two highly coveted power forwards and an elite point guard. The Wildcats should keep rolling in the future. If Reynolds scores the way I thought he would last year…look out!

6. Marquette – Buzz Williams makes his debut as head coach with a phenomenal group of perimeter players at his disposal. Jerel McNeal is the best of the bunch, but Wesley Matthews and Dominic James are both all-league types as well. The ex-Warriors will be lean in the front court thanks the ridiculous transfer of Trevor Mbakwe (dude, you would’ve gotten mad minutes). Instead they’ll utilize the athleticism of Buffalo native Lazar Hayward and the ruggedness of Dwight Burke. This team will try and make things a track meet with the aforementioned guards, Hayward, plus the duo of sharpshooter David Cubillan and the pesty Mo Acker. Williams, who has a year under his belt at New Orleans, will be thrown right into the coaching frying pan — but he’s made his name as a recruiter and now everyone knows why with the standout class he’s already assembled for ’09. If Buzz can coach at all, Milwaukee’s finest should remain just that under his watch.

7. Georgetown – John Thompson III lost two valuable big men in Big Roy Hibbert and Vern Macklin (my guys in Gainesville think Vern will be more than solid for the Gators starting next year) but replaced them with 6-11 super-recruit Greg Monroe, the highly-recruited 6-10 Henry Sims and Florida State transfer Julian Vaughn. Monroe runs the floor, is a good passer, and can play outside on the perimeter better than a lot of guys his size. His big challenges will be to defend and rebound. GT3 is pretty stacked with talent elsewhere. DaJuan Summers can be an absolute beast if he decides to play a little more selfishly in the team-stressed philosophy of the Hoyas. The 6-8, 235 pound forward has NBA written all over him but some were dissappointed he didn’t make a bigger jump with his play last year (11 points, 5 boards per). He should be this team’s first option at all times on the offensive side of the ball. Jessie Sapp will bring his Senior leadership and versatility (9 points, 4 boards, and 3 dimes per) to the table, while Austin Freeman will most likely see his scoring average (9 ppg) rise into double figures. A huge addition, as he proved last year in tournament play, will be point guard Chris Wright. The 6-1, 201 pound quarterback stepped right in at clutch time and produced. Jason Clark, a first-year guard should also see some minutes. Thompson will have a starting lineup with two sophomores (Wright and Freeman) and one freshman (Monroe). Most teams couldn’t avoid a letdown after losing a point guard like Jonathan Wallace and a center like Roy Hibbert. It says here the Hoyas should be fine, maybe even a spot or two above this vote.

8. Syracuse – My suspicion is that Syracuse is highly capable of making this prediction — remember, this is the opinion of the Millionaires (and the new jacks about-to-be-if they’re smart) — down-right comical when all is said and done. They lost the black hole shooting inferno named Greene. They return a stud point god in Jonny Flynn. Ditto Paul Harris. Now you add Andy Rautins and a kid I absolutely love in Eric Devendorf — yeah you ED haters that says a lot about me, but it also says a lot about you — who has an uncommon versatility in that he can get to the rack at will off the dribble but also hit daggers from deep. Devendorf and Rautins make Flynn the best point guard in the league hands down. He won’t have to score as much, or more importantly have the pressure on him to score, as much as last year. Flynn will be able to distribute to more shooters and have plenty of gas left in the last five minutes to take over and dictate if he needs to. Arinze Onuaku will benefit as well. Look for the big to continue his improvement (12 and in this his Junior year. M-M-M-M-M-Mookie Jones is a freshman with the athletic ability to help this team off the bench, especially if the ‘Cuse play at the pace they did last season (79 ppg). The Question Mark: DEFENSE. Jimmy B loves his zone but its been ineffective over the last few years. This team has the make-up, especially with Flynn, Harris, and Onuaku, to play straight up man. That would also get Devendorf and his quick hands more involved instead of him just standing up top in the 2-3. They could also afford to pressure more up court. Syracuse has the depth and talent, at least in my opinion, to finish in the top four of the BE but they need to defend better and take care of the ball. One thing is certain — this version of the Orange will be back dancing in March.

9. West Virginia – Who really knows what the Mountaineers can do this season with any certainty? They lost program mainstays Darris Nichols and Joe Alexander. They return a lot on the outside but the inside is a huge riddle. They do however have one of the best basketball coaches on the planet in Bob Huggins, who had them a few minutes away from another Elite Eight in his first season on the job. Huggins returns four players who played decent minutes in Joe Mazzula, Alex Ruoff, Da’Sean Butler and Wellington Smith (the lone inside presence at 6-7). Cam Thoroughman has a questionable knee and again is only 6-7 in the post. Mazzula will probably battle newcomer Truck Bryant for the starting point guard slot as the season goes on. Bryant is the all-time leading scorer in St. Raymond’s history and if you know anything about that storied program you realize that’s a real achievement. Ruoff and Butler will bring scoring and toughness. Whether the Mountaineers can succeed will probably come down to how fast the two freshmen in the frontcourt — Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones — develop in Hugg’s system. They could be the answer to the questions in the middle should Huggs find a way to get them to rebound with the bigs in the conference (both collected 10-plus a game in HS). Their talent on the offensive end should help replace the production of lottery pick Joe Alexander. Bryant, Ebanks and Jones are the foundation Huggins is laying as he constructs WVU into his image. Combined with the talents of Ruoff and Butler, and the scrappiness of Mazzula this team has a chance with Huggins at the helm. His 2009 class has three inside guys (including Deniz Kilicli) that should complete the aforementioned foundation.

10. Providence – Keno Davis inherits a lot of talent but very little toughness. If the young coach can get his players to buy in and play hard they’ll be playing in the NCAA tournament. If he can’t get that effort out of them they won’t. Getting Weyinmi Efejuku to play to his talent level would be a great start. Geoff McDermott is a triple-double threat whenever he steps on the court and Jeff Xavier brings an undersized toughness to the boards on both ends. Sharaud Curry returns at point guard after missing almost all of last year due to injury. Dwain Williams transferred out right as Davis, a coach who’s system would clearly benefit him, was being hired. The decision of the oft-travelled Williams is as perplexing as Mbakwe’s at Marquette. This team could go up or down depending on what kind of will they show.

11. Cincinnati – Mick Cronin must feel like he and his Bearcats are cursed. Last year expected front-court starter Mike Williams was injured right before the start of the season. Now this year it’s expected point guard Cashmere Wright that goes down (ACL). The plan was for Wright to run the point so stud Deonta Vaughn could play off the ball where his scoring ability could be maximized. This will inhibit Cronin’s plan to play in transition more because Vaughn will now, again, have to play almost the entire game without any rest. A huge addition to the program though is 6-9 Yancy Gates. Having watched Gates in the past, it’s fair to say that he has both inside/outside skills unlike a lot of big men his age. The Cincinnati product looks comfortable shooting the baseline fade-away from 15 feet, has a bit of a handle, and can dominate his man with his size — 6-9, 245 — on the interior. Cronin was excited to have Vaughn, Williams, Gates and Wright together this year as the four are his building blocks for a return to the success of the Huggins era. Now, he’ll have to do without Wright. Cronin however, thinks he has four good players in the paint and that the Bearcat depth there will help a lot to this team’s chances. 7-0 Anthony McClain is a sophomore who played 9 minutes per game as a freshman and could contribute more this year especially at the defensive end with shot-blocking. Cronin needs some time because of the bad luck but it seems as though he has the Bearcats headed in the right direction. Whether that’s going to come to fruition this year is a lot harder to say given Wright’s injury and the depth of the BE.

12. Rutgers. 13. Seton Hall. 14. St. John’s. 15. DePaul. 16. USF.

I’m not sure how the coaches come up with the slotting on these picks as you could probably throw these five in a hat and have a chance at being right. Rutgers has an interesting recruiting class led by Rivals #8 ranked shooting guard Mike Rosario, along with bigs Greg Echenique (St. Benedict’s) and Christian Morris (St. Thomas More). Some rank the class in the top thirty nationally, which is probably why Fred Hill got an extension. Hill is proving he can get local talent and he needs it. The Scarlet Knights were last in the BE in shooting at 39.8% and averaged a paltry 62.2 ppg. J.R. Inman returns his 12 points and 7 boards per game along with Anthony Farmer and his 40% from the three-point area.

Seton Hall is heading into year three under Gonzo with only, at last check, eight players. They also have more litigation/waiver applications going on with the NCAA that the Essex County Courthouse is rumored to be their new practice facility (I joke I joke). Stix Mitchell was a really good scorer on a really undermanned Duquesne squad two years ago. The Hall is counting on him — his nickname again, Stix and not because his hobby away from the court is the drums — to play some power forward. On top of that he won’t be available for two early games over in Puerto Rico because of a questionable (read the AD sticking it to the coach) suspension. Talented point guard Eugene Harvey looks to bounce back from a down sophomore campaign, while sophomore Jeremy Hazell has the ability to explode for big numbers on any given night. Mitchell and Hazell will be an interesting combination to watch as both like to shoot it a ton. Freshman Jordan Theodore will have to play a lot because of the numbers situation (and maybe he would anyway). The Hall is weak inside. John Garcia gives his best every night but it’s painful to watch this young man out of Brentwood Long Island struggle up and down the court with knees that have seen better days. Mike Davis will need to play big inside. Paul Gause is a tough kid back for his last go-round. This will be a really long year for the Pirates due to the lack of bodies. And betting the house on Herb Pope and Keon Lawrence lasting a year without basketball — especially Pope — before suiting up for a run in 2009-10 seems desperate. The quotes from the coach have been incredible already this preseason, from taking shots at Hill and Roberts for their extensions, to publicly criticizing one of the eight healthy players he has as not ready for BE play. This hire was seen as big-time by more than a few prominent columnists in the metro area a few years ago. I can’t imagine those columnists feel the same way now. Seton Hall is a tough job in a beast of a league, but the coach seems bent on making it harder.

St. John’s is in the same boat as Seton Hall, only with the non-abrasive Norm Roberts as coach. Roberts has had a tough time recruting suitable talent and when he has he loses it because of the way he uses it. Anthony Mason Jr will play well as will D.J. Kennedy but after that it’s a crap-shoot as to who will play at a BE-type level. Malik Boothe looks to take over the point guard spot. How Roberts is still employed is a mystery — he deserves credit for cleaning up the program, but the administration needs to make changes in a lot of areas to see any kind of success return to the once-proud program. As one BE assistant said when the announcement came down that Roberts would be back for another season — “I’m sure Norm is celebrating right now, but so are fifteen other teams in the conference.” Ouch.

DePaul has potentially two of the better players in the league in Dar Tucker on the wing and Mac Koshwal in the post but has had trouble cracking into the fertile Chicago recruiting ground since hiring Jerry Wainwright. Jabari Currie, a guard out of Detroit returns for his senior year and Will Walker is a solid local kid out of Bolingbrook, Illinois. The rest of the roster is filled with unknown entities, mostly freshman and sophomore guards/swingmen. The roster does have some size with redshirt freshman Kene Obi (7-2, 260) along with freshman Krys Faber a 6-11 265 pounder. Croatian center Matija Poscic should contribute inside as well. Not sure how DePaul moves up from last year but at least they get to play in the Garden.

South Florida actually might be able to move ahead of the four teams above if they get Gus Gilchrist eligible (a big if at this point). They feature a quartet of strong guards in sophomore Dominique Jones, senior Jesus Verdejo, junior Chris Howard and Georgia transfer Mike Mercer who will join them after six games. Again, if Gilchrist is eligible, the Bulls could move into the #10-11 range in the league. Stan Heath likes the athleticism and motor of Eladio Espinosa, a freshman small forward. Heath’s calling card as a coach has been his ability to get players. That talent will be tested at USF but the addition of Gilchrist is a step in the right direction.

Well, I’ve given you almost 4,500 words on all sixteen teams in the Big East.

If you’ve lasted this long reward yourself with a free shot!

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Ray Mernagh is the Basketball Editor for the Pittsburgh Sports Report and writes for Basketball Times as well as his own blog, Hoop Wise. Ray’s first book, 1 Chance 2 Dance: A Season Inside Mid-Major Hoops in Mid-America, focuses on 18 months of MAC basketball.
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